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Catalyst Impact Backtest

A retrospective check of current FDA-event impact tiers against later stock moves, including duds. Historical tier-assignment snapshots are incomplete, so this page does not claim point-in-time validation or future predictive ability. No login required.

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RETROSPECTIVE ONLY
Type: retrospective · Methodology: · Generated:
Tier assignment timestamps, immutable calendar snapshots, benchmark returns, and confounder adjudication are incomplete.

Realized Move by Impact Tier

For each tier, the average and median absolute stock price move in the 5 trading days following the event — not direction, just magnitude. A tier classification is only useful if higher tiers actually move more.

Recent VERY HIGH Impact Events

Every event ORION flagged VERY HIGH in the trailing window, with the real subsequent move — the ones that didn't move are shown too, not filtered out.

Methodology

The current endpoint reads impact tiers from the present manually curated FDA calendar. It does not preserve sufficient evidence to prove when every historical tier was assigned or whether it was later revised, so this is explicitly retrospective. Realized move: the absolute value of the stock's close-to-close price change from the trading day before the event to N trading days after (N = 5 by default), using the same Yahoo Finance price feed as the rest of ORION. Below 15 evaluated events, a tier is labeled statistically insignificant rather than presented as a real number. This page describes whether the current classification aligns with observed volatility. It has no XBI/S&P benchmark adjustment, confidence interval, complete announcement-session handling, or systematic same-day confounder review, and it does not forecast a future move.